Interactive ToolBased on Peer-Reviewed Research

Marriage Survival Predictor

Exploring the statistically significant factors behind divorce - drawn from census data, longitudinal studies, and peer-reviewed demographic research. Adjust the inputs and watch the survival curve respond in real time.

National Average
43%chance of lasting

This is the baseline divorce rate for a first marriage. Adjust the inputs below to see your personalised prediction.

Baseline
You
Your Partner
Demographics: Near baseline
28
16Sweet spot - lowest risk (0%)60
0
NewlywedNo survival bonus yet40 years
Baseline - no effect
Best statistical odds
(we promise this is relevant)

Marriage Survival Curve

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Risk Profile

High

Divorce Prob.

57%

Peak Risk

Year 5

5-Yr Survival

79%

What the Data Says

📊

Biggest Factor: Demographics (+2%)

This had the largest impact on your prediction. These are population-level correlations, not individual destiny.

Marriage Survival Predictor

43%

chance of not needing a divorce attorney's number

"You might want to keep a divorce lawyer's number somewhere accessible."

Average: 57%-14 pts below average

Send this to your partner. We dare you.

openmatterplans.com/tools/divorce-predictor

Share your results

Screenshot or save and send to your partner

Disclaimer

For entertainment and educational purposes. Uses real demographic research but cannot predict individual outcomes. Marriage success depends on communication, commitment, and countless personal factors no statistical model can capture. Demographic correlations reflect systemic patterns, not individual character. And no, your star sign really doesn't matter.